Blues face crunch period of the season
Manchester City are entering a stretch of the season where football turns into logistics. Between Wednesday, 17 December 2025 and Saturday, 10 January 2026, the Citizens play seven times across three competitions.
Seven games in 25 days: the calendar becomes the opponent
The sequence began with the Carabao Cup quarter-final match against Brentford. Then, this Saturday, West Ham arrives in the Premier League. Just a week later, the clash against Nottingham Forest will kick off.
However, the turn of the year is the worst part. Sunderland away to start the calendar (Thursday 1 January 2026), Chelsea at home on Sunday 4 January, and Brighton at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday 7 January. To close the seven-game run, the FA Cup third round at home to Exeter City, which should be the easiest duel of the bunch.
The pressure is not the number of matches; it’s what the schedule forces you to do. Guardiola has already stated that the Brentford tie will feature heavy rotation, including academy players, as the Premier League doesn’t pause. And rotation is harder when the injury list is long. Rodri and John Stones will be sidelined for the Carabao Cup clash, and Jérémy Doku may return around the New Year. Furthermore, Omar Marmoush and Rayan Aït-Nouri will be out of the team for their AFCON duties.
So, every fixture is also a risk-management during this part of the season: how hard do you press, how early do you make substitutions, and how much do you simplify in order to protect legs? The second half of December and the first half of January have a new opponent: the 70th minute.
What City can’t compromise on
A survival month starts with a simple rule: rotate minutes, not just names. It’s not enough to shuffle the XI if the same core still logs 90 minutes twice a week. The best wins in this spell might be the ones where City are ahead on the hour and still have the discipline to change the game early, before fatigue turns into bad-timed transitions and avoidable muscle injuries that could compromise the squad further.
Second, keep a spine in every match. Guardiola has talked about including a senior “father figure” in a much-changed team, because when you rotate ten players, you also rotate leadership. In a congested month, there will be mistakes that the opponent might profit from: a cheap turnover, a second-ball scramble, a mistimed press…
Third, press with intention. With Rodri out, City’s “rest defence” matters even more. This doesn’t mean abandoning aggression, but choose the moments to press: hunt after clear triggers, trap wide, and drop together when the first wave is beaten.
Finally, be ruthless in the right way. A home FA Cup tie like Exeter should be professional, not theatrical: strong start, clear structure, finish the job early, then get off the pitch. If everything goes well, make important changes for the second half. In the league, City may also have to accept an unfashionable truth: some 1–0s are “bigger” than 4–2s if they preserve bodies and momentum for the next turnaround.
Andrei Marius Popescu’s view: why congestion widens the possibilities for lesser teams
According to the data journalist Andrei Marius Popescu, fixture congestion isn’t just “tired legs”; it’s a variance machine and an opportunity for lesser teams to get a better result than expected. “Big clubs are still rightful favourites, but the gap narrows quite a bit: one rotated pairing that doesn’t sync, one half-step late in the press, one forced substitution… everything can change the game and give an edge to a team that seems weaker”, the Romanian says.
The underlying mechanism is well documented: during congested periods, players tend to pace themselves to preserve high-intensity actions, while some measures of lower-to-moderate running output can drop, a subtle shift that can reduce a favourite’s ability to suffocate opponents for 90 minutes. As Popescu documents in his analysis, congestion is associated with higher match injury incidents, and even when the injuries aren’t long layoffs, the day-to-day availability churn forces coaches into more rotation and more improvisation. Thus, once again, that’s oxygen for “lesser” teams.
Popescu’s practical takeaway would be simple: underdogs should lean into the parts of football that travel well when favourites are managing minutes (fast starts, set pieces, direct transitions, and forcing second balls). And in cup football, the historical record is clear: smaller sides do land punches, especially when the giant across from them isn’t at full strength or full focus.