Manchester City return to the Champions League this season with a mix of optimism and unfinished business. After lifting the trophy in 2023 with a 1-0 win over Inter in Istanbul, last season proved more transitional for Pep Guardiola.
Domestic inconsistencies and a reshuffled squad meant City couldn’t replicate their European dominance of years gone by, leaving the Spaniard and his team eager to go one step further and make a genuine push for the final in Budapest.
The weight of expectation sits heavily on Guardiola's shoulders as he approaches what is likely to be the twilight of his time in English football.
Two defeats from their opening three Premier League fixtures have left City already chasing the pack domestically, raising questions about whether this squad possesses the same frustrating characteristics of recent seasons - two steps forward, one step back.
If the domestic title race slips away early, an all-out assault on European glory could become the Spaniard’s primary focus. His side were tipped for a title push once more when looking at the best betting options with Gambling.com yet despite splashing the cash in the transfer market, there is still work to be done on the pitch.
That said, the arrival of Gianluigi Donnarumma adds a new layer of confidence. The Italian goalkeeper, standing at 6ft 5ins, brings experience, authority, and composure to a position where City have sometimes looked vulnerable. Alongside key midfield additions such as Tijjani Reijnders and Rayan Cherki, Guardiola’s squad now feels deeper, more flexible, and equipped to cope with the demands of Europe’s revamped Champions League format.
In this article, we look at the key factors that could define Guardiola’s campaign in Europe and assess if City have what it takes to make it to Hungary next year.
Familiar Foes In The League Phase
City's Champions League group offers a familiar cocktail of old adversaries and fresh encounters that will test every facet of Guardiola's side.
Real Madrid remain the standout challenge. The clubs have met in each of the past four seasons, with 14 encounters overall: City have won four, Madrid five, leaving a competitive edge on both sides. For the fifth consecutive campaign, Guardiola’s men will face the Spaniards at the Bernabeu, a venue that has often proved a bogey ground.
Borussia Dortmund are another familiar opponent, having met six times previously, most recently in the 2022/23 group stage. Napoli rekindles ties from City’s first Champions League adventure back in 2011 and again in 2017/18, adding extra intrigue as former City legend Kevin De Bruyne now lines up for the Serie A champions.
This will be where the campaign begins and with odds of 10/11 on Guardiola’s side it could be the standout fixture at the Etihad on the opening matchday
Monaco brings back memories of one of the competition's greatest ever ties — that extraordinary 6-6 aggregate thriller in 2016/17 that the French side won on away goals. Their summer recruitment of Paul Pogba, Eric Dier, and Ansu Fati suggests they're not just making up the numbers this time around.
The new format has also thrown up first-ever meetings with Bayer Leverkusen, Bodo/Glimt, and Galatasaray. Leverkusen present a particular unknown quantity following Erik ten Hag's departure after just two months, while the Turkish champions' passionate support will create one of the most hostile atmospheres City will face all season.
A New-Look Lineup
Madrid remains City's biggest bogey team, and this latest encounter will test whether Guardiola has truly rebuilt his squad to overcome their European nemesis. The Spanish giants possess an almost mystical ability to raise their performance level when it matters most, and their recent record against City suggests psychological scars that run deep.
Donnarumma’s role will be critical. The Italian brings elite-level experience, command of the area, and shot-stopping ability, but further up the pitch, the midfield also needs to create chances for Erling Haaland, who has looked isolated domestically despite finding the back of the net.
The midfield additions of Reijnders and Cherki offer Guardiola tactical flexibility he's previously lacked. The Dutchman’s ability to control tempo while contributing defensively provides the perfect balance for Guardiola's system, while Cherki's creativity and press resistance could unlock stubborn defenses that have frustrated City in recent European campaigns.
Off the pitch, Guardiola’s coaching team could prove a decisive factor. Pep Lijnders, former assistant to Jurgen Klopp, has brought fresh ideas on intensity, pressing, and meticulous match preparation. Lijnders’ experience in Champions League campaigns, including the run-in to the 2019 final, highlights how small tactical nuances and attention to detail can determine outcomes.
Guardiola’s ability to rotate a deep squad effectively will be equally critical, especially when they face unknown factors like Leverkusen and Bodo/Glimt.
Can City Go All the Way?
City have the talent, but the question is whether Guardiola still has the drive to go all the way. When viewed through an unforgiving lens, his Champions League record makes for uncomfortable reading - just two titles in the last 15 years represents a massive underachievement for a coach of his calibre and resources.
Budapest awaits, but the ghosts of European failures past may prove harder opponents than any they'll face in the group phase. For Guardiola, this could be the season that defines how history remembers one of football's greatest minds.
Photo by Mylo Kaye on Unsplash