Love them or hate them, penalty kicks are an intense part of football. There’s no bigger drama, and no higher pressure for players, than facing a penalty shoot-out in a major tournament like the UEFA Champions League or the FIFA World Cup.
But how much of penalty kicks are just down to sheer luck, and how much is down to skill? Does luck play a bigger role in the outcome of a spot kick than, say, taking a spin of the reels on a slot machine at one of the 10 top casinos online?
The Ultimate Pressure
Back in 1999, Manchester City won the English Division Two Play-off Final against Gillingham to secure promotion when they were still down in the lower tiers. Fast-forward to 2023 and the Citizens collected the UEFA Super Cup against Spanish club Sevilla with a 5-4 shoot-out success. The pressure was the same, but the stakes were higher and luck was involved in both outcomes. But to what degree?
Penalty Kick vs Gambling?
Is scoring a penalty more likely than winning at a casino? The answer is complicated as it would depend on what type of bet was placed at what odds. Statistically, even sports bettors need to win 52.4% of the time to be successful over a long period, which is hard. But in comparison to trying to win from a slot machine or at a roulette table, seeing a penalty being scored is statistically far more of a certainty.
Penalty Analysis
Statistics suggest that 75-80% of penalty kicks in a top competition, like the English Premier League or Spain’s La Liga, will be successful. Only approximately 11% of penalty kicks are saved, leaving around 4% on average being missed by the player.
Gambling Analysis
Let’s compare that 75% expected conversion rate of penalties to the chances involved in basic gambling at a casino. There’s a 1/37 probability of winning a straight bet on a single number on the roulette table (2.70%).
According to statistics, there is a 42.22% chance of winning a hand of blackjack, less than a 50/50 shot. Winning the jackpot on a slot machine could be anywhere from 50 million to 100 million to one.
It should be remembered that there is a statistical probability against you winning due to house advantage, which will depend on the game. The house edge may be less than 1% on a hand of blackjack, but 35% on a slot machine.
Luck vs Skill
A penalty kick has a bigger chance of being successful through skills developed from dedicated practice. Skill still can’t eliminate everything like the goalkeeper diving the right way, the taker not making perfect contact with the ball or just crumbling under pressure.
Poker players do spend hours learning skills for the game, but can’t determine what card is going to get drawn into their hand. But in some casino games, there aren’t even skills to learn, because the weight and influence of Lady Luck is too great.
For gambling options like bingo, slots and roulette, lucky guesses are more the order of the day than skill. Just because the roulette wheel has produced five single-digit numbers in a row, doesn’t increase or decrease the chance of the next spin being one. You still only have approximately a 2% chance of being right by selecting a single number.
Betting on the outside in roulette will give a greater chance of winning than trying to score a single number, however, so it’s all down to the angle you take.
For example, if you bet on a player to score a penalty the chances of being right are 75% on average, but there is only a 20% chance of a penalty being awarded in a match. The only real similarity between penalty kicks in football and gambling is that there is chance involved, there are just varying degrees of how much it influences outcomes, but more is definitely needed at the casino.