How Has Man City’s Early Season Form Impacted Their Statistical Chance of Success?

By Guest writer, Fri 16 December 2016 11:04

How Has Man City’s Early Season Form Impacted Their Statistical Chance of Success?Defeats against Chelsea and Leicester could prove costly in title race

Leicester City won the Premier League last term, in what was described by many as the greatest achievement in sporting history. They totalled 81 points, 10 points ahead of second placed Arsenal, and 15 points ahead of Man City in fourth.

If City were to replicate Leicester’s Premier League winning points haul of 81 this time around, would they win the league? The numbers have been crunched, and a total of 81 points would see City win the league in 88% of cases. There is a 12% chance they’d finish second with this total, and a zero percent chance that they would finish out of the top two completely.

So just how many points would likely guarantee title success? 87 or above would indicate a 99% (or greater) chance of winning the league, with 92 or above seeing City most definitely lift the trophy.

As it stands, based on an algorithmic calculator used by many sports fans, City have a 22.3% chance of winning the title, with the stats showing only Chelsea having a greater chance. This is likely due to their lack of midweek action in Europe, the games they’ve already played, their performances in those games, their results in previous seasons against teams in their remaining fixture list, and their current position in the league table.

However, the bookmakers seem far more confident than the statistics would suggest. At the time of writing, most have City installed as the current 2/1 favourites – suggesting that City would win in one of every three runs, whereas our stats suggest this is closer to one in every four or five. Many are offering various free bets and bonuses to encourage punters to put their money where their mouth is, among them Unibet as one of the most popular bookies in the UK. However, do bear in mind that in ‘that’ season where Kun Aguero won the title for City with the last kick of the game, Man City were actually out to 100/1 at one point, showing the bookmakers aren’t always right.

Of all managers who won their opening five Premier League games, only one has failed to go on and win the league – Guus Hiddink with Chelsea. Pep’s men lead the way with the best start, the highest average possession, highest pass success rate, and highest number of clear cut chances created. What these stats are telling us is that Pep’s way is the right way – 21 trophies in a career absolutely laden with success further backs this up.

Perhaps what Guardiola brings that heralds the greatest importance, is his Champions League pedigree. Having won the competition twice with Barcelona, his winning mentality is slowly transitioning to the players, and they are coming out of their shell. A fantastic result against his former club last time out has seen City’s odds shortened to 10/1 for the competition, and it would take a brave man to bet against the Pep way being the right way again for City on the biggest stage of them all.