A year ago, Manchester City were perched atop English football, their relentless machine purring toward another trophy parade. Fast forward to May 2025, and the Etihad faithful watched helplessly as Liverpool wrested the Premier League crown away, their 13-point margin back to the third-place Blues a chilling indictment of a campaign gone awry. For a club built on dominance, City’s surrender was not so much a sudden collapse as a slow unravelling—a team strangled by injuries, blunted by squad turnover, and struggling with new signings that clearly weren't up to the task at hand.
Now, as the curtain rises on the 2025/26 campaign—City launching their title quest away to Wolves on August 16th—the critics swirling around Guardiola’s men are growing in number. One only needs to look at the latest online sports betting odds for confirmation of that. Formerly the clear frontrunner at the beginning of every campaign, the latest online sports betting at Bovada odds now make the Blues a distant 4.25 third favourite, well behind champions Liverpool and perennial runners-up Arsenal.
In a league pulsing with new threats and old rivals hungry for supremacy, City’s path to redemption runs through three players whose form, fitness, and force of will could define the season itself. Let’s break down the key figures who simply must deliver if Guardiola's side is to return to the summit in 2025/26.
Erling Haaland
Erling Haaland once looked invincible, a battering ram sculpted for the record books. His debut campaign was unlike anything English football had seen before: 52 goals in 53 games in all competitions and a famous treble headlined by a maiden Champions League crown. The following year, more brilliance: 38 goals overall and a second straight Premier League title.
But the striker who once shattered defences seemed all too human last year. His output dipped to just 22 league goals, the lowest he has managed in a single campaign since he first made the move to Red Bull Salzburg as a teenager. Admittedly, that haul is still a superhuman effort for most strikers, but for the Norwegian sensation, it's a million miles away from what he expects.
What does this mean for 2025/26? City’s fortunes swing on Haaland regaining his swagger—and fast. The former Dortmund man isn’t just a finisher; he is the emotional and tactical barometer of this team. His movement sets panic buzzing through defensive lines, and his goals galvanise belief. With Kevin De Bruyne’s artistry gone, the playmaking demand is heavier. Haaland must build new link-ups with Phil Foden, Mateo Kovacic, and perhaps the mercurial Rayan Cherki.
Guardiola’s system still lives and dies by the frequency of good chances for their number nine. If Haaland clicks with the new creative core—and punishes rivals with the pitiless streak that once left defenders visibly shaken—City’s title tilt is alive. If not, they risk falling into the pack.
Rodri
The numbers are stark. With Rodri in the lineup last season, City’s win rate was a menacing 78%. Without him? That figure plummeted to 40%. Few players are so fundamental, so quietly vital, and yet so glaringly missed when absent as the Spaniard. He functions as the ballast of Guardiola’s midfield, balancing risk and rhythm, extinguishing fires before they spark.
When Rodri limped out with a season-ending injury in the 2-2 draw at home to Arsenal last October, City’s midfield shape began to buckle. Their famed press lost its edge, transitions became ragged, and defensive frailties crept in. More than just a pivot, Rodri is the fulcrum around which everyone else revolves—the player who allows fullbacks to surge, wingers to drift, and attackers to take risks knowing the gate behind them is locked.
This year, with the league’s central battleground more congested than ever—Liverpool retooled, Arsenal bristling, Chelsea and Newcastle ever more sophisticated—Rodri will be asked to hold the line and drive it forward. Can he stay fit? Can he orchestrate a new, less familiar cast? If he does, City’s authority can be restored. If he falters, Guardiola risks reliving the frailties of that costly winter slump.
Phil Foden
There is no more tantalising subplot in City’s new story than the transformation of Phil Foden from prodigious spark to creative heartbeat. His numbers in the 2023/24 season foreshadowed a coming of age, 27 goals and 13 assists securing him Player of the Season honours. However, last term, inconsistency returned, with just seven league goals and two assists all year.
De Bruyne and David Silva once threaded City’s attacks together; Foden now occupies that mantle. His technical elegance is dazzling—acute touches, sudden surges that slice open packed defences, and an instinct for the spectacular. But for silverware to come home, productivity must meet inspiration.
Foden faces a gauntlet of physical markers and tactical traps. Will he return to his brilliant best and deliver match-winning moments at the Emirates and Anfield? Or will he hide in the shadows as he did for much of last season? Only time will tell.